As expected, the tropical Atlantic is beginning to ‘awaken’

NEW ORLEANS (WVUE) - As we head into what is climatologically the busiest time of hurricane season, the Atlantic is beginning to “wake up”.

The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season has been normal so far. In a typical season, we see four named storms and one hurricane by mid-August. We’ve seen exactly that with tropical storms Arlene, Bret, and Cindy. Hurricane Don formed in the Atlantic back in July.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) did track a subtropical storm in January 2023, but it was never given a name.

Named storms so far for the 2023 Hurricane Season. Subtropical storm one was an early season... — Named storms so far for the 2023 Hurricane Season. Subtropical storm one was an early season storm in January.(WVUE Fox 8)

Most of the tropical activity happens between late August through early October. It’s no surprise that we’ll start seeing more activity. In fact, it’s expected.

We are heading into climatologically the busiest times of the hurricane season.(WVUE Fox 8)

The atmospheric features that keep us quiet will start to shift which will pave the way for more activity.

The Saharan dust that comes off the coast of Africa is showing signs of weakening within the next week. This allows the tropical waves that come off the African coastline a more conducive atmosphere for development since the lack of dust means more moist air.

The record sea surface temperatures will be fuel for any storm and aid in possible rapid intensification.

Sea surface temperature anomalies as of Jul 16th.(WVUE Fox 8)

As of Wednesday morning (August 16), the NHC is actively monitoring three disturbances in the Atlantic. Two disturbances in the eastern Atlantic have a medium chance of developing within the next week.

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The area to watch in the Gulf is currently in the western Atlantic as a topical wave and has a low chance of development this far out. We’ll need to monitor this area since it’ll come close to the Gulf coast. It has the potential to bring meaningful moisture by the first part of next week. There still lies the possibility that it could move through the central Gulf and into Texas. Whether it develops into a depression or tropical storm is still unclear this far out.